THREE PATHS · NET TO SELLER · GROUNDED IN VERIFIED FLEXMLS COMPS

$389,000 is where the data lands.

The recommendation is Strategic. Aggressive is the 14 · 21 day stretch test. Velocity is off the table · it nets below your $350,000 floor. Here is the math for all three.

STRATEGIC LIST ★
$389K
Recommended
NET TO YOU
~$359,825
+$9,825 above floor
CLOSED MEDIAN $/SQFT
$229
× 1,717 = $393,158
FEDERAL CAP-GAINS
$0
§121 confirmed

SECTION 01 · WHY THIS PRICE LANDS HERE

Three numbers do all the work.

$229 closed median per square foot. 1,717 verified sqft. $393,158 supportable. Strategic at $389,000 sits $4,158 below the closed-comp data center · with the casita and 2026 reno baked in as upside on top.

CLOSED MEDIAN
$229
per square foot · n=4 closed FlexMLS sales · 1.00 mi radius · last 6 months
VERIFIED SQFT
1,717
Pima Assessor + MLS concur · Long Realty Property Verification doc PVP rank-1
SUPPORTABLE
$393,158
Strategic at $389,000 sits $4,158 below this · conservative on the data alone

SECTION 02 · THE THREE PATHS

Same home. Three prices. Three different stories to the buyer pool.

Each path has a different signal. Velocity is off the table · net falls below your $350K floor. The decision is between Strategic and Aggressive.

BELOW FLOOR
PATH A
Velocity
$375,000$218 / sqft
NET TO YOU~$346,875
Move it fast. Compete on price.
BEST WHEN
A hard date in Colorado.
RISK
$13K of upside left for 7 · 14 days of speed. Net falls $3,125 below your $350K floor.
REASONING
Below the closed-comp average ($229/sqft). Captures the financing-buyer ceiling and the cash-buyer floor at the same time. Fast pool but underprices the casita + reno.
RECOMMENDED
PATH B
Strategic
$389,000$226 / sqft
NET TO YOU~$359,825
Priced where the data lands.
BEST WHEN
Default. Most listings should be priced here.
RISK
Standard market risk. Adjust at day 14 if 8+ showings produce zero offers.
REASONING
Closed median × 1,717 sqft = $393,158. Strategic sits $4,158 below the data center, with reno + casita + 4th-BR conversion premium baked in. Captures both 3BR and 4BR search filters.
PATH C
Aggressive
$399,000$232 / sqft
NET TO YOU~$369,075
Test the $400K psychological ceiling.
BEST WHEN
You can give the listing 14 · 21 days at this number with discipline to drop if needed.
RISK
If we sit 21 days with no offer, drop to $389K. 2022 S Faye at 61 DOM and 2042 S Faye cancelled at $380K signal 4BR east-side absorption above $375K is slow.
REASONING
$30K above the closest active 4BR competitor (2022 S Faye Pl at $369,900). Premium matches pool + casita + 2026 reno. Below the $400K psychological ceiling.

SECTION 03 · THE $350,000 FLOOR CHECK

Your hard floor is honored at every recommended path.

You stated at the table: net less than $350,000 means you rent the property instead. That single rule kills Velocity. Strategic clears it by $9,825. Aggressive clears it by $19,075.

PATH A · Velocity
~$346,875
net to seller
VS $350K FLOOR
−$3,125
BELOW FLOOR · OFF TABLE
PATH B · Strategic
~$359,825
net to seller
VS $350K FLOOR
+$9,825
CLEARS FLOOR
PATH C · Aggressive
~$369,075
net to seller
VS $350K FLOOR
+$19,075
CLEARS FLOOR

SECTION 04 · PRICE-VS-TIME TRADEOFF

What another two weeks of patience is worth.

Two spreads frame the decision. The premium between paths is real money · but every step up adds market days and adjustment risk. Strategic is the conservative read on the data; Aggressive is the optimistic read.

+$12,950
Velocity → Strategic
$13K more net for 7 · 14 more days on market. The Velocity tier is dead because of your floor anyway, so this gap is academic.
+$9,250
Strategic → Aggressive
$9K more net for 14 · 21 more days on market and a non-trivial chance of needing to drop. Worth the test if you do not have a hard date.
THE FOUR ANCHORS

Full pull on /comps · 4 closed + 2 active + 1 pending + 1 cancelled, plus the Cathy Place under-contract intel I hold from the buyer's seat on that transaction.

SECTION 05 · MY RECOMMENDATION

List Strategic at $389,000.

Captures both 3 BR and 4 BR buyer searches. Sits $4,158 below the verified closed-comp data center. Reads disciplined, not aspirational, to buyer agents · which is how listings get shown more often. Net of $359,825 clears your $350,000 floor by $9,825 with room for a small concession if needed.

If you want to test Aggressive at $399,000, I will list there. The 14 · 21 day test window applies. Velocity at $375,000 is off the table because it nets below your $350K floor.

“You decide. I will make any of the three work · but Strategic at $389,000 is where the data lands and where the buyer pool is widest.”

Tyler · in-person walkthrough · April 28