9181 E Sugar SumacPre-Listing Brief · Roe
Silver Pass Phases I to IV, refreshed June 13 2026. The anchor is the twin on your street: identical 2,055 sqft, two-story, 4BR, pool, under contract at $375K in 18 days. Plus the larger two-story closes that just transferred, the closed cohort, and the cancelled cautionary tale.
The closest comp that exists. Same street, identical 2,055 sqft, same two-story 4BR layout, also with a pool. Listed at $375,000 and went under contract in 18 days. This is the single most important data point in the brief, and it is why the recommendation is $369,900.
| Field | 9128 (twin) | Subject (9181) |
|---|---|---|
| Status | Active Contingent · 18 DOM | Pre-list |
| Price / List | $375,000 | $369,900 (recommended) |
| Sqft | 2,055 | 2,055 (identical) |
| Bedrooms | 4 | 4 |
| Bathrooms | 3 (2 full, 1 half) | 3 |
| Stories | Two | Two |
| Year Built | 1996 | 1996 |
| Pool | Yes | Yes (450 sf in-ground) |
| Solar | Not disclosed | Yes · 10.8 kW · Dividend 3.9% · assumable |
| $/sqft | $182.48 | $180 strategic / $185 aggressive |
| DOM | 18 | pending go-live |
Adjustment logic: the twin matches the subject feature for feature, so there is almost nothing to adjust. It listed at $375,000 and the market took it in 18 days. The subject lists $369,900, just under it, capturing the same pool and layout while staying under the $375K buyer's-market band line. The assumable 3.9% solar is upside on lifetime cost of ownership.
| Address | Sold | Sqft | $/sf | BR/BA | Stories | Financing | DOM | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9005 E Sugar Sumac St | $429,900 | 2,600 | $165 | 5 / 3 | 2 | Conv. | 38 | 2026-05-14 |
| 9006 E Autumn Sage St | $420,000 | 2,600 | $162 | 5 / 3 | 2 | FHA | 26 | 2026-05-20 |
| 8966 E Autumn Sage St | $320,000 | 1,916 | $167 | 4 / 2 | 1 | FHA | 40 | 2025-11-20 |
| 7981 S Wild Primrose Ave | $315,000 | 1,569 | $201 | 3 / 2 | 1 | FHA | 4 | 2026-04-22 |
| 9213 E Ironbark St | $332,950 | 1,569 | $212 | 3 / 2 | 1 | Conv. | 4 | 2026-03-12 |
The two-story closes on Sugar Sumac and Autumn Sage settled at $162 to $165/sqft on 2,600 sqft. The smaller 1-story / 3BR closes over-index per-sqft ($201 to $212) because square footage is small. The subject sits in the gap between them, and the twin at 9128 prices that gap at $182/sqft.
| Address | List | Sqft | $/sf | BR | Status | DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9128 E Sugar Sumac St (twin) | $375,000 | 2,055 | $182 | 4 | Act. Cont. | 18 |
| 8976 E Orchid Vine Dr | $335,000 | 1,860 | $180 | 4 | Act. Cont. | 4 |
| 9138 E Muleshoe St | $297,000 | 1,533 | $194 | 3 | Act. Cont. | 5 |
The twin is the only active home that matches the subject on size, style, and pool, and it is already under contract at $182/sqft in 18 days. The larger two-story comps (9005, 9006) have since closed at $162 to $165/sqft. With the twin spoken for, the subject lists into a tier with no direct competition left standing.
| Address | List High | List Low | Sqft | Avg $/sf | BR | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8952 E Rainsage St (cancelled twice) | $435,000 | $425,000 | 2,811 | $153 | 6 | 80 |
Lesson: $435K and $425K both failed at 2,811 sqft, and the home is back on the market at $415K still sitting at 213 cumulative days. The submarket refuses $150 to $155/sqft on a larger 2-story. The subject prices well below this curve. Even Aggressive ($379,900 / $185/sf) is below the failure point per-sqft and far below it in absolute dollars.
The twin (9128) under contract at $182/sf in 18 days · Closed median $317,500 · Rita Ranch median sale $345,000 · 99% sale-to-list, 30% over asking · $350K to $375K band is a seller's market (2.4 months); $375K to $400K is a buyer's market (7 months).
