THE NUMBERS YOU ASKED FOR · CALL 2026-05-06

Rent vs. sell. The math you asked for.

On the call you asked two questions: what does it actually rent for, and is Airbnb the better path. Both numbers below. Sale math underneath. Verdict at the bottom.

LIST NET
~$61,207
30-day lump sum
LTR ANNUAL NET
~$2,082
~$174/month
STR ANNUAL NET
~$1,060
after fees + insurance
YEARS TO MATCH
29.4
LTR vs. List
THE BOTTOM LINE
Sell. The rental math doesn't beat the sale net for ~25 to 58 years.
At a $159,900 list you net ~$61,207. Settle near $150,000 for about ~$52,050. Renting nets ~$174 per month while the mortgage is in place. That's the answer.

SECTION 01 · TIME TO MATCH

How many years before rent equals the List lump sum.

The sale paths fully realize in 30 to 45 days. The rental paths drip cash flow over decades. Both rental paths only get attractive after the mortgage is paid off, and that means the sale net is already in hand somewhere else.

LIST~30-DAY LUMP SUM~$61,207EXPECTED CLOSE~45-DAY LUMP SUM~$52,050LTR · MORTGAGE ACTIVEYEARS TO MATCH LIST29.4 yearsSTR · MORTGAGE ACTIVEYEARS TO MATCH LIST57.7 years010 yrs20 yrs30 yrs40 yrs

SECTION 02 · LONG-TERM RENTAL

$1,250/month furnished. ~$174/month net.

Estimated monthly rent for a 1BR/1BA, 576 sqft, renovated, furnished unit on the Tucson east side near DMAFB and U of A: $1,100 to $1,450. Mid estimate $1,250. After all expenses with the mortgage active, ~$2,082 per year clears.

RENT BAND · FURNISHED
$1,100 to $1,450
MID · $1,250/mo
NON-FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
  • →Phoenix-based landlord on a Tucson rental · property management essentially required.
  • →Furniture wear-and-tear and turnover replacement costs not in the expense line.
  • →1BR tenant pool is smaller than 2BR · vacancy gaps run longer.
  • →Capital remains illiquid · the larger Phoenix property purchase waits.
  • →Eviction, late-pay, and damage risk all live on the absentee owner.
Annual gross at $1,250/mo mid
$15,000
HOA dues · $235 × 12
− $2,820
Property tax
− $458
Landlord insurance
− $700
Property management · 8%
− $1,200
Maintenance + vacancy reserve · 10%
− $1,500
Mortgage P&I · estimated
− $6,240
TOTAL EXPENSES
$12,918
NET CASH FLOW / YEAR
$2,082
If the mortgage is paid off: annual net rises to ~$8,322, about $694 per month. A meaningful number, but only after the sale lump sum is already in hand somewhere else.

SECTION 03 · AIRBNB / SHORT-TERM RENTAL

$80 median nightly · 60% occupancy · ~$1,060/year net.

Higher gross potential than long-term rental. Management fees, STR-rated insurance, and utilities erase the difference. Three regulatory gates have to clear before this path is even live. None of them are.

NIGHTLY · OCCUPANCY
$65 to $120
MEDIAN $80 · 60% OCC
HARD GATES · ALL UNCLEARED
  • ×Ridge 22 CC&Rs must allow short-term rental · currently unverified
  • ×City of Tucson Type 1 STR permit · annual renewal
  • ×STR-rated insurance · standard landlord policy does not cover guest stays
Any one of those failing closes the path entirely. Operational load: cleaning turnover, linen + supplies, dynamic pricing, guest comms, maintenance response. Fig N Toast handles it end-to-end at 22.5 percent of gross.
Annual gross at $80 median · 60% occ
$17,520
Fig N Toast management · 22.5%
− $3,942
HOA dues
− $2,820
Property tax
− $458
STR-rated insurance
− $1,200
Utilities not in HOA
− $1,800
Mortgage P&I · estimated
− $6,240
TOTAL EXPENSES
$16,460
NET CASH FLOW / YEAR
$1,060
If the mortgage is paid off: annual net rises to ~$7,300 at the median scenario. STR converts a clean exit into an active second job from 90 miles away.

SECTION 04 · THE SALE PATHS

What the math looks like the other way.

Tara committed to sell on 2026-06-19 and asked to list higher. List at $159,900 to chase a cash offer. Expected close lands near $150,000, with a walk-away floor near $140,000.

RECOMMENDED
LIST
$159,900
Net at 6%~$61,207
Net at 5% internal~$62,806
Window21 to 30 days
EXPECTED CLOSE
$150,000
Net at 6%~$52,050
Net at 5% internal~$53,550
Window30 to 45 days w/ reductions
FLOOR
$140,000 walk-away.
The hard floor. List $159,900 to chase a cash offer, expect to settle near $150,000, and walk away no lower than $140,000. Furniture conveys turn-key.

SECTION 05 · THE HONEST TAKE

Both rental paths look workable on paper. They aren't.

The long-term rental path nets about $174 per month while the mortgage is active. That math assumes a tenant who pays on time, doesn't damage the property, and stays through the lease. It also assumes you accept that the larger Phoenix property purchase waits 29.4 years for the rental to match a lump-sum sale.

The Airbnb path nets less while the mortgage is active. It also requires three regulatory gates to clear that haven't cleared yet, and it converts the property from a passive asset into an active second job.

The sale path nets ~$61,207 to ~$52,050 in 30 days, redeploys cleanly into Phoenix, and ends the absentee-landlord question entirely. That's the one that fits what you said on the call.

“I just wanna be done with it and move on.”Tara · 2026-04-30 intake call
WHAT I’D DO NEXT
Pick a price · Tell me about the contractor option · Send back the homework form.
  1. List $159,900 and chase a cash offer. Expect to settle near $150,000. Furniture conveys turn-key.
  2. Tell me whether to keep the contractor option live as a parallel track or take it off the table while we list.
  3. Send back the homework form so we can lock the last open numbers: mortgage payoff, hard net floor, furniture inventory. Five minutes.
Pricing paths →Phase 1 brief →Comp grid →Walkthrough photos →
Tyler Lopez · (520) 462-6023 · owner@mlslisting.net